Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8fa61f0552cf7af5e9f2a2ac9adf1a2f168b85322d243022b9d2c4cf7db90d6

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $100,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $107,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1104…002abacked Yes	5c	20,996$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,012.47	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-48%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c00…6edfbacked Yes	4c	16,000$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	5c	8,295$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.92	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	5c	2,000$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.5	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1759…475dbacked Yes	2c	1,547$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,542$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.34	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	5c	1,250$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.45	387	34.4%133 W · 254 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…64b0backed Yes	6c	1,212$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.59	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	3c	1,192$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.48	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadc5…6aa4backed Yes	3c	1,031$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	3c	888$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	6c	822.23$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.68	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd20d…769abacked Yes	5c	814.89$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.57	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	4c	778.51$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.78	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b0…bbacbacked Yes	6c	517.45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	4c	501.47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.56	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	3c	472.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.07	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	3c	419.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed Yes	3c	367.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	142	43%61 W · 81 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b13…0c4abacked Yes	4c	365.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed Yes	6c	219.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event