Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d477a590a416e457871f79832653bd18737f9b845658b062fdfd023528ac31b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,108 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0121…f722backed Yes	15c	2,022$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.67	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8603…fb04backed Yes	18c	1,288$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No	79c	999.98$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.99	198	25.3%50 W · 148 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f65…05acbacked No	73c	999.98$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Yes	17c	896.25$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.36	78	34.6%27 W · 51 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No	75c	873.62$656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.62	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	17c	840$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.8	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a1…b214backed Yes	28c	824.73$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.29	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed Yes	20c	712.42$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.62	191	48.2%92 W · 99 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	24c	573.21$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.09	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked No	80c	562.5$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	300	32.3%97 W · 203 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f82…efe0backed Yes	27c	499.98$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…bf88backed Yes	23c	499$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.77	193	32.6%63 W · 130 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524f…319bbacked Yes	30c	481.88$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.55	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No	79c	458.71$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.33	51	72.5%37 W · 14 L	+7.6wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa022…72c2backed Yes	25c	454.59$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.61	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	72c	422.24$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes	23c	387.58$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.14	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b6…6717backed Yes	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked No	78c	337.23$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.74	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	7c	315$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked No	74c	302.86$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.41	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x810d…0d24backed Yes	22c	300$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x018a…3b37backed Yes	24c	292.92$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	25c	270.37$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.59	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e24…2406backed Yes	17c	235.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	90	52.2%47 W · 43 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	75c	232.74$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.57	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	24c	227.42$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.42	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes	25c	223.8$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed No	78c	215.78$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.26	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x552f…1f0bbacked Yes	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.25per pick	41cpaid	+77.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes	26c	199.52$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.88	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…b1f9backed Yes	25c	194.28$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.57	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	27c	192.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.06	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	70c	179.58$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.28	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No	74c	177.23$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.2	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	75c	167.42$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.4	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	20c	162.58$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	72c	161.2$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.7	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45ae…fc5abacked Yes	26c	153.85$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	73c	150$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.35	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	21c	150$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…0cabbacked Yes	17c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	238	55.5%132 W · 106 L	+10.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed No	78c	148.25$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.25	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	70c	140.72$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.58	722	47.2%341 W · 381 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	27c	139.29$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.61	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	18c	136.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19a3…ca3dbacked Yes	19c	134.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4043…2bc7backed Yes	25c	118.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	15.9%10 W · 53 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	18c	117.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…7b71backed Yes	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x887f…7289backed Yes	24c	99.13$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	18c	97.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No	76c	94.81$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.75	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5afc…2995backed Yes	17c	84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes	26c	80$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7dd…e5e4backed Yes	17c	80$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	19c	79.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	25c	79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	24c	79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	72c	73.61$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.33	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x630f…5501backed Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2dd…d9b8backed Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfba…44d5backed Yes	28c	70.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc370…d8d9backed Yes	19c	68.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…6c54backed Yes	24c	68.19$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	20c	63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2c…88c6backed Yes	24c	62.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	185	62.2%115 W · 70 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	18c	62.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb5e0…2b19backed No	78c	61$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.26	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…45d1backed No	73c	60.07$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.22	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No	79c	57.26$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.84	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4910…836ebacked Yes	28c	52.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	26cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc2…dd7bbacked Yes	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342a…cdc1backed No	79c	44.53$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.53	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	75cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ee…eaa6backed Yes	27c	42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba6…5cfcbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b61…aba2backed Yes	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…0589backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-91.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed No	77c	38.51$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.67	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf715…bbf0backed No	75c	28.66$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.16	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	74c	21.08$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.48	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84f…1656backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.3wins	+0.30per pick	52cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed No	77c	19.13$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	73c	18.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed No	73c	17.96$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.85	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	76c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.6	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	72c	14.29$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed No	72c	14.28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event