Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c08e712e683859016b91deb6e65a65d0a5ccd8f2f4d281519473158a0672d71

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $124,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $131,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,733 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9868…64b0backed Yes	9c	8,996$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.65	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	5c	6,520$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.01	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	7c	6,225$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.84	131	22.1%29 W · 102 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed Yes	5c	5,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e6…1dcbbacked Yes	13c	4,310$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Yes	7c	4,100$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.97	80	28.8%23 W · 57 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef8d…b115backed Yes	16c	2,459$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	102	24.5%25 W · 77 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	13c	2,272$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.66	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c6…c4febacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x121a…ca6bbacked Yes	10c	1,900$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	12c	1,880$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.42	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea9…b6b8backed Yes	11c	1,826$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.02	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7014…678bbacked Yes	10c	1,818$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	11c	1,500$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.08	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	6c	1,310$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	8c	1,146$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.15	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc298…27febacked Yes	11c	910.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5107…4281backed Yes	9c	873.33$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.12	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-55%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86f6…ad6dbacked Yes	12c	817.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948c…f2c2backed Yes	12c	814.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	10c	750$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Yes	10c	698.18$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	656.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.57	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4668…92f0backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010d…029ebacked Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x61b0…14dbbacked Yes	12c	563.25$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Yes	8c	503.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.31	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3d…c0cdbacked Yes	12c	470$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	259	45.2%117 W · 142 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked Yes	8c	429.95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.22	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcafd…cde6backed Yes	13c	422.62$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	66	50%33 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca2…c0c8backed Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa761…6281backed Yes	14c	368.71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c37…d5afbacked Yes	12c	367.33$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cad…ae47backed Yes	16c	321.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked Yes	6c	307.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…6de4backed Yes	14c	295.81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	272	39%106 W · 166 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	9c	258.75$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	9c	254.46$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…032dbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	121	23.1%28 W · 93 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	43.3%39 W · 51 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked Yes	8c	249.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ed…1d79backed Yes	13c	238.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	10c	230$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…90f5backed Yes	8c	220$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d99…de53backed Yes	9c	211.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	18c	206.71$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.09	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	208	41.3%86 W · 122 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…9ffdbacked Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	5.9%3 W · 48 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a5…f52ebacked Yes	12c	199.78$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	177	38.4%68 W · 109 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	9c	199.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c79…a3d9backed Yes	12c	195.96$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No	80c	174.52$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.9	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a76…e39ebacked Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb3a…6efabacked Yes	13c	155$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes	7c	154.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	405	15.3%62 W · 343 L	+11.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc370…d8d9backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…28d5backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b76…61a1backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	151	21.2%32 W · 119 L	+9.6wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	79c	139$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.19	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfba…44d5backed Yes	15c	136.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes	9c	125.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	128	47.7%61 W · 67 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb10f…56f4backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e1a…947cbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac0…8529backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0377…5e23backed Yes	12c	124.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…d338backed Yes	13c	116.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…a007backed Yes	14c	114$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed96…b130backed Yes	14c	105.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0817…9c93backed Yes	11c	105.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+90.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4002…c185backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	85	25.9%22 W · 63 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f1d…d849backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	80	27.5%22 W · 58 L	+7.2wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+79.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd33c…a724backed No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0f…3476backed Yes	12c	93.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	179	38%68 W · 111 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…ee7abacked No	76c	59$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.16	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event