TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,965 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a9c…0ad0backed Yes6c32,300$1,778 inLost-$1,777.790%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes11c2,657$300 inLost-$3004825%12 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes11c2,178$250 inLost-$2501723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c1,360$68 inLost-$67.958,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c1,092$50 inLost-$50.051674.2%7 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa9…7c52backed Yes6c1,038$58 inLost-$581250%6 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+129%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes7c851.11$57 inLost-$56.8719929.1%58 W · 141 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c837.29$43 inLost-$42.977799.6%75 W · 704 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c8…6de4backed Yes9c565.07$50 inLost-$50120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c540.02$33 inLost-$33.121266.3%8 W · 118 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes7c491.3$36 inLost-$36.092,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa26…2205backed Yes10c486.16$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c365.28$19 inLost-$18.82937.5%22 W · 271 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbb…acb2backed Yes10c360.09$36 inLost-$36.42128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes4c281.74$12 inLost-$11.9729916.7%50 W · 249 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e33…dd67backed Yes7c214.15$15 inLost-$154156.1%23 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes10c210.82$22 inLost-$21.8921517.2%37 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…dd7bbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost-$13.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No80c46.23$37 inWon+$9.2526330%79 W · 184 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.