Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab8b0a7eebd8beeb386d652e692d6201f94eefd419545b3dc66c5b61025041d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toulouse FCof Olympique de Marseille, Toulouse FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toulouse FC | 68c | 5,273$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.5 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…3c7abacked Olympique de Marseille | 37c | 2,709$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toulouse FC | 63c | 2,487$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.08 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Olympique de Marseille | 7c | 2,402$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…5d1bbacked Olympique de Marseille | 33c | 2,327$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Toulouse FC | 68c | 1,412$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.79 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Toulouse FC | 64c | 1,404$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.53 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 1,400$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Toulouse FC | 64c | 1,394$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.86 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 1,209$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…9212backed Olympique de Marseille | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 464$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Olympique de Marseille | 31c | 329.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6e0cbacked Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 292.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toulouse FC | 65c | 274.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Toulouse FC | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Olympique de Marseille | 33c | 159.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 142.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed Olympique de Marseille | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 88.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…9b88backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Toulouse FC | 65c | 51.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Toulouse FC | 67c | 45.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301e…ab22backed Olympique de Marseille | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Toulouse FC | 73c | 31.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.