Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x166b63b216bc81cda6e265652627b28508bba6ef62aa9e275518d7e665dc7d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 16,163$9,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,307.4 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 40c | 15,500$6,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,270 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca1…dd13backed Over | 56c | 7,054$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,103.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 6,920$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.65 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 35c | 5,585$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.27 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,956$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6e0cbacked Over | 52c | 1,221$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,178$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.58 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 752.74$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.94 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 49c | 694$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 54c | 664$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.44 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 45c | 533.22$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Over | 57c | 491.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 56c | 355.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 47c | 301$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…5840backed Over | 57c | 280.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 229$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…510ebacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 61c | 133.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Over | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 83.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 66.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 57c | 64.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 54c | 49.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…a634backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.