Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ee2ce54a7be0bf6f36d9f81e693c3b8e5348c56611c60f1343b539cc69bce2

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Manchester United FCof Aston Villa FC, Manchester United FC
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,035 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United FC	79c	14,892$11,780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,112.08	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa297…8e9bbacked Aston Villa FC	16c	4,467$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf816…3578backed Aston Villa FC	25c	3,984$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Manchester United FC	77c	3,728$2,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$844.76	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	-10.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Aston Villa FC	21c	3,011$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.69	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Aston Villa FC	22c	2,500$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	531	34.5%183 W · 348 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Aston Villa FC	23c	1,500$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Manchester United FC	75c	1,284$963 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321	159	52.2%83 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Aston Villa FC	24c	999$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.76	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Aston Villa FC	24c	833.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Aston Villa FC	24c	732.8$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.57	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Aston Villa FC	24c	700$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	294	27.9%82 W · 212 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…85f3backed Aston Villa FC	16c	440$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.4	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-5.7wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Aston Villa FC	24c	420.83$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Manchester United FC	76c	406.59$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.58	109	56%61 W · 48 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Manchester United FC	75c	400$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Aston Villa FC	25c	312$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.76	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Aston Villa FC	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	112	27.7%31 W · 81 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Manchester United FC	77c	288.08$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.64	401	50.1%201 W · 200 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aston Villa FC	23c	284.84$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.98	584	45.9%268 W · 316 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Manchester United FC	76c	258.32$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Manchester United FC	75c	244$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Aston Villa FC	26c	234.62$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	89	27%24 W · 65 L	-11.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Aston Villa FC	25c	216$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	360	36.1%130 W · 230 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa FC	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe666…14f5backed Aston Villa FC	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Aston Villa FC	23c	197.41$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.4	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Aston Villa FC	24c	188.16$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.69	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Aston Villa FC	25c	160$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	377	40.3%152 W · 225 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Aston Villa FC	17c	154$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	191	33%63 W · 128 L	-13.8wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Aston Villa FC	25c	149.07$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	181	24.9%45 W · 136 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Manchester United FC	77c	133.86$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.79	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e6…7ef4backed Aston Villa FC	24c	130$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Manchester United FC	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	161	60.9%98 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0102…e4d2backed Manchester United FC	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	26	76.9%20 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	67cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Manchester United FC	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-5.3wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Manchester United FC	65c	121.46$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Aston Villa FC	20c	120.07$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	290	41.7%121 W · 169 L	-9.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Aston Villa FC	25c	120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	189	28%53 W · 136 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Manchester United FC	76c	120$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	233	53.6%125 W · 108 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC	24c	110.73$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.59	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xeee1…3e28backed Manchester United FC	77c	109.32$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.14	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Manchester United FC	67c	107$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.78	964	45.4%438 W · 526 L	+12.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Manchester United FC	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-27%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Aston Villa FC	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a23…932abacked Aston Villa FC	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Aston Villa FC	23c	99.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Manchester United FC	76c	99.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	93	59.1%55 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x680e…14abbacked Aston Villa FC	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a6…2a95backed Aston Villa FC	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d7…bdebbacked Aston Villa FC	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Aston Villa FC	24c	81.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.77	161	36.6%59 W · 102 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed Aston Villa FC	26c	80$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Manchester United FC	80c	78.89$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d5…0417backed Manchester United FC	77c	77.92$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	161	42.9%69 W · 92 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Aston Villa FC	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	162	36.4%59 W · 103 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Aston Villa FC	23c	69.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Manchester United FC	75c	68$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Aston Villa FC	30c	65.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	124	46%57 W · 67 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Aston Villa FC	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	184	44.6%82 W · 102 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c78…1af0backed Aston Villa FC	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ea…dd92backed Aston Villa FC	24c	53.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fb4cbacked Manchester United FC	77c	51.95$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.95	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…afefbacked Aston Villa FC	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3279…a922backed Aston Villa FC	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb226…e227backed Aston Villa FC	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…cc23backed Manchester United FC	69c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+81.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Manchester United FC	76c	47.19$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.39	891	52.9%471 W · 420 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Manchester United FC	75c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	282	46.1%130 W · 152 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc6e…02cfbacked Manchester United FC	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	61cpaid	+73.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Manchester United FC	76c	29.49$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.08	106	56.6%60 W · 46 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab8…d621backed Manchester United FC	77c	29.45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.77	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Manchester United FC	75c	19.6$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.9	271	73.8%200 W · 71 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	76cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…b28abacked Manchester United FC	80c	16$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf8…c1a7backed Manchester United FC	76c	15.79$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.79	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Manchester United FC	76c	15.7$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.77	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e4…8ccabacked Manchester United FC	77c	15.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+50%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…53dbbacked Manchester United FC	77c	15.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.58	9	100%9 W · 0 L	+2.4wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1fb…7c39backed Manchester United FC	76c	13.45$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.19	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Manchester United FC	78c	13.17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.9	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event