Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8dee3e4869f7652ed84d9be212b85c3aced3cd5bbcf8b2ec81f6b2dd279f4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 23c | 7,320$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.76 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 18c | 6,594$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.4 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 63c | 1,800$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,770$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.44 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 19c | 1,249$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.31 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Under | 19c | 999$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 75c | 845.04$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Under | 20c | 804.38$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 80c | 786.3$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.26 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 17c | 443.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 311.49$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 62c | 242.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a6…af86backed Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 79c | 213.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…aecabacked Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Under | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Under | 21c | 114.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…1f24backed Under | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 16c | 100.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…aaccbacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb56…fee9backed Over | 61c | 76.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…bc16backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…f53bbacked Under | 19c | 58.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…eff8backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…4d5bbacked Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d9…e920backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4ef1backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1493…630cbacked Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…5870backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a3…fef9backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…7904backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3527…71a6backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…e9fcbacked Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…39d7backed Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…1a3bbacked Under | 19c | 54.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +10.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…1276backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 74c | 43.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 42.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 552 | 54.5%301 W · 251 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 73c | 32.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…bce6backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…da92backed Over | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f85…5013backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 80c | 16.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.