TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aston Villa FCof Aston Villa FC, Lille OSC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$489,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,909 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Aston Villa FC33c133,914$43,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,333.253450%17 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lille OSC67c85,256$57,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,517.962850%14 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lille OSC68c23,958$16,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,290.782560%15 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lille OSC68c22,117$15,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,026.733,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Lille OSC68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,599.955635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Aston Villa FC31c12,432$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,578.023452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Aston Villa FC32c11,000$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4801060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Lille OSC68c10,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8003151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lille OSC69c7,731$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,319.8138247.1%180 W · 202 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Aston Villa FC31c5,642$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lille OSC70c3,575$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Aston Villa FC32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1253836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Aston Villa FC31c2,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38011226.8%30 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Aston Villa FC80c1,966$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.243732.4%12 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lille OSC69c1,912$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.282552%13 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Aston Villa FC32c1,900$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Aston Villa FC31c1,480$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.21952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lille OSC67c1,356$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.3391950.9%468 W · 451 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Aston Villa FC39c1,297$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Aston Villa FC29c881.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.825836.2%21 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Lille OSC67c806.48$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.3710254.9%56 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Lille OSC69c700$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48333349.8%166 W · 167 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Aston Villa FC32c670$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.0411242.9%48 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Aston Villa FC31c645.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.166929%20 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Aston Villa FC32c525$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3571154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Aston Villa FC31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3453100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+168.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lille OSC69c449$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8118049.4%89 W · 91 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Aston Villa FC30c438.4$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Aston Villa FC31c434.02$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.481,02247.5%485 W · 537 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Aston Villa FC36c417.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.781040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Lille OSC69c376.81$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Aston Villa FC30c367$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.95540%22 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Aston Villa FC30c366.21$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1121835.8%78 W · 140 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Aston Villa FC31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5814352.4%75 W · 68 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Aston Villa FC32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.52729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ac…c69bbacked Aston Villa FC32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee4c…8572backed Aston Villa FC32c291.59$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Aston Villa FC30c265.52$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7788048.2%424 W · 456 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Aston Villa FC30c250$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17514252.1%74 W · 68 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Aston Villa FC28c250$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.862536%9 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Lille OSC69c243.15$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.782828.6%8 W · 20 L-7.4wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-48.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Aston Villa FC31c233.77$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.31,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Aston Villa FC32c230$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.47067.1%47 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Aston Villa FC33c211.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.683956.4%22 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Aston Villa FC30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1404751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Lille OSC68c183.86$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.168355.4%46 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Lille OSC68c183.11$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0617956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Lille OSC69c178$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.821758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lille OSC66c172.31$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.72,99042.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L+9.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Aston Villa FC30c160$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1128056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d1c…0e0cbacked Lille OSC69c157.07$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Aston Villa FC32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.253354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Aston Villa FC32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.259638.5%37 W · 59 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Aston Villa FC30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1059444.7%42 W · 52 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Aston Villa FC30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Aston Villa FC32c149.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.492222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b6…0bd5backed Aston Villa FC30c130$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Lille OSC69c128.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Aston Villa FC30c125$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.510953.2%58 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Aston Villa FC30c125$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.514756.5%83 W · 64 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Aston Villa FC32c123$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.24966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+59.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Aston Villa FC30c120$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Aston Villa FC30c120$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848953.9%48 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Aston Villa FC33c118.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.188130.9%25 W · 56 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Lille OSC68c110.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3816543.6%72 W · 93 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfbf…40a5backed Aston Villa FC31c107$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+124.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d979backed Aston Villa FC32c107$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Aston Villa FC30c101$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.77636.8%28 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Lille OSC71c100.38$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2717249.4%85 W · 87 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Aston Villa FC30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708052.5%42 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Aston Villa FC30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Aston Villa FC30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707244.4%32 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Aston Villa FC30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707544%33 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Aston Villa FC30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707647.4%36 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…7575backed Aston Villa FC37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf226…9c0fbacked Aston Villa FC31c96.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Lille OSC70c95.11$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.797848.7%38 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6bb…288cbacked Aston Villa FC32c93.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+118.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Aston Villa FC32c89.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.032268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61d4…46acbacked Aston Villa FC20c85.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.681050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Aston Villa FC36c84.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2170239.3%276 W · 426 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Aston Villa FC31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+60.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Aston Villa FC30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Aston Villa FC30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked Aston Villa FC28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.64427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3612…cf99backed Aston Villa FC17c78.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.531145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd815…1cdebacked Lille OSC68c73.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dab…dc59backed Lille OSC69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Aston Villa FC30c67.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4616013.1%21 W · 139 L-18.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-47%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb61…25e3backed Aston Villa FC31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fcd…f802backed Lille OSC69c63.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa FC32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.515224.3%37 W · 115 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Aston Villa FC32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59644.8%43 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Aston Villa FC21c60$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.423461.5%144 W · 90 L+26.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+31.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe013…1ddcbacked Aston Villa FC32c59.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde2…3fcfbacked Lille OSC68c58.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf824…651fbacked Lille OSC69c57.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Aston Villa FC30c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.57853.8%42 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lille OSC72c51.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.863857.2%365 W · 273 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Aston Villa FC30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357852.6%41 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.