Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55aec2a5d4f72cf356152c486fadedcc3e402bf0dac957eb3f160d8007de71d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 27c | 5,544$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 73c | 5,313$3,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.28 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…812bbacked Under | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 27c | 938.84$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 913.35$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 75c | 735.92$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.92 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 458.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 72c | 415.01$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…d06cbacked Under | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 226.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 206.41$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 204$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7030…195ebacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 27c | 171.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 106.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 26c | 99.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 75c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 28c | 83.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Under | 73c | 82.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…28d2backed Over | 27c | 73.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9681…9199backed Under | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…c640backed Under | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.