Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c3916c6040687147ac188ab667eeaff64825d5c26d785bbbe2bee79ab8bf4c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 12c | 112,706$13,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,002.52 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…f43ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,937$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 0c | 13,725$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 4c | 7,981$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…2642backed Yes | 8c | 6,336$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.98 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,463$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,868$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 12c | 1,620$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,025$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…3165backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…da7ebacked Yes | 8c | 762.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…1dccbacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…ba68backed Yes | 6c | 726.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…5ac2backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…3291backed Yes | 12c | 550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 9c | 401.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 12c | 376.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…96a7backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 15c | 281.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 14c | 211$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…aad8backed Yes | 9c | 144.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.90 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.