Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.20 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05000caaba0d587a3cb0ca61bb2da90922965753f155e02aa600d8c25b766a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 2c | 40,105$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.32 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 11c | 18,214$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.72 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 10c | 9,357$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.26 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 66c | 8,179$5,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.78 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 53c | 8,032$4,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,804.24 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 34c | 6,220$2,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.79 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 43c | 4,756$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.45 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 74c | 3,150$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.3 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 50c | 2,842$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.05 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 47c | 2,189$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.94 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,899$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 77c | 1,379$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.15 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 78c | 1,353$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.91 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 71c | 1,252$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.47 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.5 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 31c | 842.06$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.89 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 20c | 666$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.14 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…1fe8backed Yes | 79c | 644.8$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 72c | 518.84$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…01bdbacked No | 49c | 512$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 74c | 467.1$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked No | 70c | 279.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…2e62backed No | 37c | 165.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 80c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 13c | 140$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 61c | 122.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a58…3464backed Yes | 68c | 88.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…872cbacked No | 33c | 60.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 55c | 52.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…7f4cbacked No | 22c | 48.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…7ff7backed No | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Yes | 46c | 43.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb585…4097backed No | 50c | 42.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…766cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed Yes | 53c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in September?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.90 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.