Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.60 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f46f173b36a44aed017de58cf5758c9e3ba3a0599c7189a3a618dc631915393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 37c | 21,805$7,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,968.28 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 12,165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 25c | 10,937$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.61 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 76c | 8,955$6,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.81 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 47c | 7,110$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 16c | 4,965$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.09 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 24c | 4,932$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.76 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 30c | 3,694$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.36 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,648$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.27 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 37c | 2,500$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.5 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 31c | 2,436$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.29 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 71c | 1,443$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.36 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 58c | 1,115$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.67 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…f9cbbacked No | 69c | 1,054$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 34c | 751.85$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed No | 79c | 511.24$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed No | 67c | 387.7$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 13c | 246.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 57c | 215.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 71c | 153.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…c95dbacked Yes | 45c | 148.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ba…71e9backed No | 39c | 146.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…3f0dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…60babacked No | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…b094backed No | 32c | 65.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 74c | 55.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…99a1backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9581…1232backed No | 72c | 36.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…49d6backed Yes | 67c | 31.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…3866backed No | 60c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 76c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 61c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in September?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.90 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.