Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.30 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b747f81b122650319e7fb752dd4e26284332f2bf4bcefba5123ebbac31249b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 18,900$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.48 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,089$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 62c | 10,540$6,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,024.65 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 71c | 9,758$6,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.12 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 36c | 7,946$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.53 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…5de6backed Yes | 57c | 6,891$3,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,916.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 33c | 5,570$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.97 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 4c | 4,769$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 27c | 4,442$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.48 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…4db0backed No | 47c | 2,590$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.85 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 65c | 2,500$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 8c | 2,236$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,079$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,985$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 24c | 1,524$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.43 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 53c | 781.13$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.13 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 9c | 548.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…0a00backed No | 60c | 415.26$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 58c | 307.78$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…9adfbacked No | 73c | 236.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…fed6backed No | 70c | 144.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Yes | 63c | 104.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…aebfbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 41c | 86.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…9ce2backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Yes | 51c | 54.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…f5dabacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…d896backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…7ff7backed No | 62c | 40.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…39a7backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb585…4097backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1c…6e03backed No | 66c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…822dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in September?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.90 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in September?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in September?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.