TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35d4…ba68

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tennis, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 52 out of 100; worst MLB at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2025, EDT2128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cubs vs. Brewersbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.76
Rays vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.73
Rays vs. Redsbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.93
White Sox vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.51
Reds vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.39
Twins vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.85
Astros vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.34
Brewers vs. Marinersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.35
Athletics vs. Rangersbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.77
Giants vs. Bravesbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.28
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Red Sox vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$16.96
Padres vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.48
Tigers vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+50.2%+$30.22
White Sox vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.91
Athletics vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+100%+$99
Yankees vs. Bravesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$89.96
Giants vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+92.4%+$57.4
Brewers vs. Dodgersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+120%+$246.03
Twins vs. Rockiesbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.71
Orioles vs. Raysbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.58
All 21 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.55
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$30.31
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.4%+$28.85
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.86
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.53
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.29
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.93
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$32.35
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+682.5%+$307.99
All 11 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Mls — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.02
UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen backed Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+65.5%+$15.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Liquidbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.33
IEM Cologne: FlyQuest vs. FURIAbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+42%+$30.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.