Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C: Norrie vs. Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d1a8bd955659b9781a73b33b8655f433018923da6431ba84d4baebd6dfc96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Norrie | 35c | 2,468$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.9 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed Norrie | 24c | 1,642$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Musetti | 64c | 1,480$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Norrie | 51c | 1,100$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Musetti | 57c | 1,027$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.43 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Norrie | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musetti | 54c | 972$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.88 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Musetti | 69c | 948.02$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Norrie | 27c | 929.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.63 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Musetti | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.2 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Norrie | 45c | 685.83$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.49 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Musetti | 76c | 630$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.1 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Norrie | 45c | 607.29$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.01 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Musetti | 57c | 546.26$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.91 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…2e84backed Musetti | 70c | 500$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Musetti | 60c | 400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Norrie | 42c | 354.29$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Musetti | 54c | 262.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Musetti | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…3af7backed Musetti | 70c | 238.13$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Norrie | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Norrie | 47c | 214.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.93 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Norrie | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Musetti | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Musetti | 78c | 146.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Norrie | 64c | 56.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…4c2abacked Musetti | 54c | 46.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…ba68backed Norrie | 49c | 44.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Musetti | 25c | 41.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Musetti | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Musetti | 58c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Musetti | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Musetti | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.