Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will LAFC vs. Portland end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedfab2d55bf936b5c3f81b2c78fe0c20f4c501a847f56a9a12d6749d4446b839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,944$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.97 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 883.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Yes | 21c | 410$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 77c | 401$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Yes | 21c | 274$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 83.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 30c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 17c | 63.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…ba68backed No | 79c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will LAFC vs. Portland end in a draw?this page
- MLS: Will LAFC beat Portland?No won
- MLS: Will Portland beat LAFC?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.