CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: FlyQuest vs. FURIA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc531730e39eb9814993b380e307456c63539ebd95ec1272fed4bc0fd0a13972f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIAof FlyQuest, FURIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed FURIA | 67c | 4,744$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.82 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked FlyQuest | 22c | 2,045$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…0691backed FlyQuest | 12c | 1,950$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FlyQuest | 31c | 1,822$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.88 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA | 70c | 1,563$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.91 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked FlyQuest | 39c | 1,400$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked FURIA | 73c | 1,245$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.34 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed FURIA | 74c | 1,200$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…e1c7backed FURIA | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed FlyQuest | 13c | 994.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…c803backed FlyQuest | 24c | 990$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed FURIA | 66c | 970$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 448 | 48.4%217 W · 231 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed FlyQuest | 28c | 804.21$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed FURIA | 74c | 683$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.48 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked FlyQuest | 26c | 674.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed FURIA | 68c | 584.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed FURIA | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed FURIA | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked FURIA | 66c | 495.42$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…a94ebacked FlyQuest | 38c | 478.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked FURIA | 66c | 443.38$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FURIA | 70c | 379.33$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed FURIA | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked FlyQuest | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked FlyQuest | 25c | 349.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed FlyQuest | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked FURIA | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed FURIA | 70c | 298.73$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed FURIA | 74c | 248.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed FURIA | 74c | 189.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed FlyQuest | 27c | 119.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…ba68backed FURIA | 70c | 104.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed FlyQuest | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed FlyQuest | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked FlyQuest | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked FlyQuest | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed FlyQuest | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed FURIA | 67c | 87.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed FURIA | 74c | 81.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked FURIA | 72c | 77.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked FlyQuest | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed FlyQuest | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 737 | 58.2%429 W · 308 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked FlyQuest | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 252 | 43.3%109 W · 143 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed FlyQuest | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed FlyQuest | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed FURIA | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FURIA | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 859 | 46.1%396 W · 463 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e3…e76cbacked FURIA | 79c | 47.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed FlyQuest | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…5211backed FlyQuest | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked FlyQuest | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked FURIA | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 826 | 46.2%382 W · 444 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked FURIA | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.