Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will New York City FC beat Sporting Kansas City?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda16bb5a854a3d066ce062fc2188c37e6454f00573e9450e5a3df8b7d5d292f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 45c | 848.41$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.79 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 37c | 703.73$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 63c | 159.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…ba68backed Yes | 80c | 109.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…1a90backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Yes | 80c | 27.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will New York City FC beat Sporting Kansas City?this page
- MLS: Will Sporting Kansas City beat New York City FC?No won
- MLS: Will Sporting Kansas City vs. New York City FC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.