Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Ultra Prime vs. ThunderTalk Gaming
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a34f1a26d7fdbdffd4d39fd16e04635e6c22a6936a0d3ae5ab483b0eb0eb8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ThunderTalkof Ultra Prime, ThunderTalk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Ultra Prime | 46c | 10,902$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,988.94 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Ultra Prime | 36c | 8,598$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.91 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Ultra Prime | 44c | 5,387$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.41 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed ThunderTalk | 56c | 5,040$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.6 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed ThunderTalk | 59c | 4,476$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.48 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Ultra Prime | 36c | 4,463$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.05 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed ThunderTalk | 66c | 4,079$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.22 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed ThunderTalk | 52c | 1,536$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.07 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked ThunderTalk | 57c | 1,509$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.36 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed ThunderTalk | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ultra Prime | 3c | 1,392$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked ThunderTalk | 62c | 1,222$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.36 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 1,008$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked ThunderTalk | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Ultra Prime | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Ultra Prime | 9c | 800$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d4…ba68backed Ultra Prime | 36c | 679.55$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed ThunderTalk | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 98 | 70.4%69 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Ultra Prime | 34c | 437.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.79 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Ultra Prime | 34c | 353.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Ultra Prime | 35c | 322.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Ultra Prime | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed ThunderTalk | 60c | 297.55$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.09 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…3db0backed Ultra Prime | 11c | 251.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked ThunderTalk | 38c | 224.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked ThunderTalk | 36c | 222$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed ThunderTalk | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae0e…6527backed ThunderTalk | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaa…4577backed ThunderTalk | 38c | 190.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked Ultra Prime | 32c | 168.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Ultra Prime | 37c | 157.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked ThunderTalk | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked Ultra Prime | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed ThunderTalk | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 364 | 65.1%237 W · 127 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Ultra Prime | 57c | 77.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed Ultra Prime | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…fb1bbacked Ultra Prime | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed ThunderTalk | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…2a58backed ThunderTalk | 67c | 59.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Ultra Prime | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…3a93backed ThunderTalk | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Ultra Prime | 34c | 40.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked ThunderTalk | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,155 | 68.1%786 W · 369 L | +35.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed ThunderTalk | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked ThunderTalk | 67c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 462 | 58.4%270 W · 192 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed ThunderTalk | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.