Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc28f791346740c2e74fb737c0928e360f20aaaf31ca2506ca23860bc8400a46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $830,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,047,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 6c | 108,445$6,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,070.33 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 3c | 54,413$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.08 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…b7aabacked Yes | 9c | 27,542$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…8b78backed Yes | 10c | 27,070$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…4bd0backed Yes | 6c | 25,670$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…42d9backed Yes | 5c | 23,420$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…f43ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,100$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc7…7e20backed Yes | 8c | 15,258$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…3475backed Yes | 0c | 15,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…0f84backed Yes | 10c | 11,692$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 9c | 9,315$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.99 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0f…8905backed Yes | 7c | 7,303$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 6c | 6,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 9c | 6,031$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.94 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8e6dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,521$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…88bcbacked Yes | 9c | 4,392$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6a…611abacked Yes | 1c | 4,073$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…a9dabacked Yes | 4c | 3,845$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 1c | 2,853$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…bb8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,134$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe830…8bedbacked Yes | 11c | 2,126$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 4c | 2,021$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…c4ccbacked Yes | 12c | 2,005$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,709$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…cb53backed Yes | 1c | 1,235$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6100backed Yes | 2c | 1,136$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…d487backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c20fbacked Yes | 7c | 964.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 8c | 955.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…fcb6backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…699fbacked Yes | 14c | 704.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 2c | 679.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…e5d3backed Yes | 8c | 627.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…e2babacked Yes | 14c | 532.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5793backed Yes | 2c | 520.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4e3cbacked Yes | 2c | 514.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 8c | 512.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…73dfbacked Yes | 3c | 504.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 10c | 422.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…e8dabacked Yes | 15c | 420.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…3f53backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…5ef2backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 395.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…7a8cbacked Yes | 9c | 361.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc937…cae7backed Yes | 4c | 360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c43…74a8backed Yes | 5c | 347.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…c12abacked Yes | 16c | 295.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea62…04e1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1007…6c41backed Yes | 6c | 231.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…243dbacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…f274backed Yes | 6c | 177.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…b5f8backed Yes | 12c | 161.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 10c | 133.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…bde5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $5.0 in July?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.3 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.4 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.6 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.9 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.2 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.4 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.