Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.6 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee69fe692e1b0db99f4435c5bac13e4defbccd64f9c536401b189fb4933b6bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 30c | 29,172$8,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,805.17 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 36c | 10,674$3,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,782.29 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 40c | 6,525$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,891.8 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1b…d367backed Yes | 39c | 6,471$2,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,926.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 53c | 4,292$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.78 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 2,642$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.85 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 37c | 2,500$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 14c | 1,676$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.69 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…8876backed No | 60c | 1,586$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 60c | 1,488$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.44 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 34c | 1,046$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 47c | 1,023$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.45 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…ac1abacked No | 9c | 929.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…0ec5backed No | 66c | 850$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 53c | 821.99$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.91 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…4575backed No | 60c | 562.17$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…128fbacked No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 57c | 450$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 57c | 438.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.49 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…0de1backed Yes | 40c | 354.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +238.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 27c | 340$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 69c | 334.88$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…16c0backed No | 39c | 334.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 41c | 268$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…9e1bbacked No | 44c | 259.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 242.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 60c | 242$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564c…eb4dbacked No | 49c | 204.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…d951backed Yes | 49c | 189.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b6…9adfbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 101.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…a5c4backed No | 59c | 88.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…70aebacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…c4ccbacked Yes | 60c | 71.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 39c | 42.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…f262backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…b618backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…00b9backed Yes | 60c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.6 in July?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.3 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.4 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.9 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.2 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.4 in July?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.0 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.