TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Nik Airball be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,954 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes17c1,806$304 inLost-$303.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…6230backed Yes19c264.47$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes17c250$43 inLost-$42.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes7c223.64$15 inLost-$15.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes19c200$38 inLost-$381421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+227.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes17c174.04$30 inLost-$30.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Yes18c150$27 inLost-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed Yes14c140$19 inLost-$19714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-24.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes18c128.78$23 inLost-$23.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32da…b112backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes19c100$19 inLost-$191414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…578dbacked Yes18c75.56$14 inLost-$13.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+127%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c73.33$13 inLost-$13.2100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.