TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Senor Tilt be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,744 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab2b…c514backed Yes11c875.92$100 inLost-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57aa…04c5backed Yes5c500$25 inLost-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…6230backed Yes12c430.88$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes9c400$36 inLost-$361435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c312.38$11 inLost-$10.931435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes8c281$22 inLost-$22.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes9c272.92$24 inLost-$23.92616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+166.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes4c244.54$11 inLost-$10.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e5…d381backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes7c172.72$12 inLost-$11.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes8c169$14 inLost-$13.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes8c158$13 inLost-$12.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes8c155.93$12 inLost-$12.261136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e03…dd32backed Yes11c150$17 inLost-$16.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes8c142$11 inLost-$11.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4614…3ef9backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.