TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Brandon Steven be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,376 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes65c2,754$1,800 inWon+$954.4922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No29c898.37$256 inLost-$256.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe3be…94e4backed Yes8c842.16$65 inWon+$777.16850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+114.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No65c800$517 inLost-$517.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-75.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c3…eab3backed Yes9c655.56$57 inWon+$598.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+325%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes7c400$27 inWon+$3731414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes6c389.99$24 inWon+$365.6616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+166.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No13c387.89$50 inLost-$50.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed Yes19c354.99$67 inWon+$287.74714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-24.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28e9…f89dbacked No43c350$149 inLost-$148.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes9c343.95$31 inWon+$312.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+111.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d5c…f8e4backed Yes60c338.69$202 inWon+$137.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes6c326$20 inWon+$306.271435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No28c270.22$76 inLost-$76.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…84bebacked No78c259$203 inLost-$203.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No67c250.21$166 inLost-$166.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked No70c235.48$164 inLost-$164.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes5c234.09$12 inWon+$222.391010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid+100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes6c199$12 inWon+$187.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…578dbacked Yes9c192.59$18 inWon+$174.83633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+127%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c180$11 inWon+$169.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+258.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a14…255dbacked Yes17c145.15$25 inWon+$120.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+192.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes22c142$31 inWon+$111.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+363%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes27c129.15$34 inWon+$94.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+276.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa262…c93abacked Yes44c113.06$50 inWon+$63.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+298.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a0…aaedbacked Yes53c106.04$56 inWon+$49.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x439f…5bb1backed Yes40c101.26$40 inWon+$61.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4a…e755backed No41c100$41 inLost-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…5e08backed Yes19c100$19 inWon+$81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No71c87$62 inLost-$61.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a2d…58b9backed Yes19c79.39$15 inWon+$64.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed No78c78$61 inLost-$60.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe43…af79backed Yes22c63$14 inWon+$49.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+339.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked No71c57$40 inLost-$40.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2672…e1e8backed Yes40c50$20 inWon+$302100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes30c34$10 inWon+$23.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe0…5d18backed Yes36c28.13$10 inWon+$18.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e1…e922backed Yes40c25$10 inWon+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked No71c20$14 inLost-$14.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.