Poker · resolved market
Will Steve be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45802906dbe4b3f8e33563ee01ac1cd23bdd7eb5fd389c9db3fc868e33b2213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6989…b412backed Yes | 13c | 2,844$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 14c | 615$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 295$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 11c | 285.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…94e4backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 6c | 206$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…b5dbbacked Yes | 12c | 105.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ee…5e08backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?this page
- Will Alan Keating be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Brandon Steven be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?Yes won
- Will Martin Kabrhel be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Nik Airball be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Peter be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Senor Tilt be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Stanley Tang be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
- Will Turbo be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.