TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe6a0…aaed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: F1, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 35.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$48.53
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+387.8%+$159
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.48
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.54
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.1
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.93
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$16.52
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+212.5%+$34
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.48
OKC breaks NBA single-season wins record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$308.25
Lakers vs. 76ersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+75.4%+$12.9
Raptors vs. Knicksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 18 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+185.7%+$130
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$328.91
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+124.7%+$111
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$185.85
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$321
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$211.24
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$96.08
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+96.1%+$14.51
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$999.19
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$83
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.28
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+148.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+110.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+50.8%+$139.75
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+38.9%+$58.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.3%+$76.74
Will Drake release an album in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.6%+$4.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brandon Steven be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+88.7%+$49.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.