Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump disparage Zelenskyy on Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6ac265e89bbeb144416c13c05a5f7aa8b729bf0ec0eda81bf1d15e5873adfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 1,054$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 13c | 759.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 15c | 470.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 460$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 301.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…0decbacked Yes | 9c | 269.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 12c | 193.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 164.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…0ea8backed Yes | 19c | 154.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 150.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 11c | 133.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…08a1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.