Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a8bd1bdc58b333cad81bdec4e315c1fc7331ff5b4cb7622100496ed819c188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,920$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 3,079$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.6 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 2,819$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 5c | 865.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 700$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 28c | 571.14$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 54c | 496.01$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.33 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed No | 64c | 480$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 64c | 466.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed Yes | 36c | 329.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 35c | 270$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 36c | 241.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 63c | 192$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed No | 71c | 138$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed No | 72c | 110.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b5…db9bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…d297backed Yes | 34c | 66.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed Yes | 36c | 42.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 45c | 39.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dd…0d99backed Yes | 39c | 38.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 68c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 26.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 65c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 14-16 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 17-19 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-22 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 23-25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.