Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa150197de5a281de4086049e1974367999ae867e6c67c00459c7a7e648586780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 1,870$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 64c | 924.62$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…8541backed Yes | 7c | 687.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 66c | 605.48$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 478.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 27c | 450.08$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 14c | 420$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 33c | 281$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 35c | 263.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.32 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 44c | 213.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 27c | 205.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 27c | 186.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 80c | 185.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 17c | 174.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 38c | 123.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…f736backed Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…25cbbacked No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 28c | 106.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…8e9dbacked Yes | 73c | 96.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed Yes | 62c | 83.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 32c | 79.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 80c | 58.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 51.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 27c | 39.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 29.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…8d8fbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 14-16 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 17-19 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-22 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 23-25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.