Tweets · resolved market
Will POTUS tweet 14-16 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc509d1b879b6bf4b2973fe630a6cce174f63a2ab4fd409d11677ba3686ce7a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5632…748dbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 49c | 865.31$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 597.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 76c | 383.95$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 59c | 377.01$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 334.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 9c | 326$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 50c | 320.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.68 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 15c | 300.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 277.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 255.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…8227backed Yes | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…4bc1backed Yes | 27c | 183.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…90c9backed Yes | 46c | 183.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 33c | 167.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 13c | 158.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 9c | 156$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 152.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 70c | 143.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 65c | 137.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…fddebacked Yes | 24c | 124.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 50c | 84.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…0e93backed Yes | 65c | 81.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…5639backed Yes | 33c | 67.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +179.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 35c | 56.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed Yes | 47c | 56.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…df18backed Yes | 58c | 49.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf731…25fabacked No | 40c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…30b7backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…277fbacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…2abcbacked Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…ca5bbacked No | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c51…07a4backed Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d1…3269backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…da04backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…d0e6backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef8…6d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…a9ddbacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will POTUS tweet 14-16 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 17-19 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will POTUS tweet 20-22 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 23-25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 5-7 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.