Movies · resolved market
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159e597549657a00421d674b06c00e419113768c306e10481842fe0164de8570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85be…4d1abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 18c | 5,155$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.51 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 4,949$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.82 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 10c | 3,974$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.15 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,954$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.09 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 3,693$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.07 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 12c | 2,561$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.22 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 5c | 2,356$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 14c | 1,812$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.45 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 16c | 1,800$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ccb5backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 5c | 1,092$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,085$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,010$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 3c | 999.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 13c | 965.37$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…7038backed Yes | 5c | 915.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 4c | 760$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 750.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 13c | 698.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…3cf7backed Yes | 20c | 661.9$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 602.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 4c | 590.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 17c | 537$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 3c | 446.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 440.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 387.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 14c | 371.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Yes | 13c | 300.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…ccc5backed Yes | 6c | 285.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 10c | 259.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 16c | 244.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 80c | 222$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 11c | 214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f28…bafcbacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +335.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 17c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 11c | 139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…c2e8backed Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…65babacked Yes | 16c | 89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…6120backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fec…4cafbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Danielle Deadwyler win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.