Movies · resolved market
Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x433474e8291ada07968598c2c528cdd9a5f936db8d12f17fb6f3559c517fde6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 3c | 6,548$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 4c | 5,416$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4960…7a11backed Yes | 4c | 4,279$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…0c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 2c | 2,983$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 2,485$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,215$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,067$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 1,278$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 1,111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,074$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 1,067$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 6c | 1,046$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…2283backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 1c | 955.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 11c | 926.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 6c | 908.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…844ebacked Yes | 2c | 907.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 4c | 881.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…34ecbacked Yes | 3c | 718.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 6c | 709.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 2c | 652.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9969backed Yes | 2c | 575.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…403cbacked Yes | 4c | 569.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 4c | 552.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 3c | 526.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 3c | 501$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 3c | 470.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 3c | 424$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…af46backed Yes | 6c | 319.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 288.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 45c | 98.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Danielle Deadwyler win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.