TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes41c12,000$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No63c11,309$7,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,215.23,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes48c9,025$4,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,369.2515134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,84033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No53c6,877$3,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.199455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No67c6,581$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.2775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes51c6,184$3,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.31,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9503855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes48c4,311$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.8733945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No51c3,180$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.172948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No52c2,629$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.3456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4c…37a3backed Yes47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No53c2,001$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.288637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes48c1,731$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.8823046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No53c1,593$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.2151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes49c1,539$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No51c1,353$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.7414846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No77c1,337$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.062,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Yes48c1,288$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.82326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Yes43c1,200$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5103834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Yes21c1,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2311723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4902352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes33c909.09$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No51c887.13$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.563748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x176d…d17fbacked Yes26c884.15$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Yes35c800$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3762378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes48c708.33$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3404252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes49c708.16$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34715540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe49b…2943backed Yes49c700.04$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.021338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes34c666.71$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.6853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb8…1fe9backed Yes49c610$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed No48c571.38$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.0214756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e93…a140backed Yes50c555.36$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8d…673abacked Yes48c516.57$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.891225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf591…c231backed Yes48c501$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49e2…018dbacked Yes48c500$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No52c495$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.612651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No51c490$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.18224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No52c488.5$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4844749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed No52c457.86$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.728532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Yes49c443$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes48c421.4$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No51c366$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003020%6 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked Yes44c338.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed No48c332$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.649659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No67c311.61$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes49c307$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.431010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-76.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a7…eb44backed Yes32c299.84$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46c…4468backed No52c279$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes49c263.27$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes12c260.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.33839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes50c260.34$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.175851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes43c258.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3319544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No48c248$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed No48c248$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9612858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75d3…de26backed Yes49c226.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9d…ed50backed No52c222$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1649…7d8abacked Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe92e…1e38backed Yes49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No75c203.56$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8516542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes48c202.02$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.019746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes48c200$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9516045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked Yes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37fc…2138backed Yes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35be…a347backed No53c198$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6f…e727backed Yes29c195.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…7308backed No51c178.95$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef1…8ec6backed Yes49c170$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.326460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.328261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.325558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.325459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.325459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3211360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.326162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.325461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.325757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3211759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3212757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.326657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3212356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3211661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.326259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3225659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3211063.6%70 W · 40 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4edd…b1a1backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.329861.2%60 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.329159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed No51c160$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.48864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.