Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbbac70ae0d6c7a0c0aa4b6f634840e9acb2a95aad2de12f87c705c859494af7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed No | 77c | 3,908$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.29 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 17c | 1,885$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,532$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,306$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 75c | 933.33$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 24c | 699.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 15c | 506.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 27c | 362.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 23c | 353$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 332.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 328.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 79c | 314.49$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 77c | 216.2$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 203.66$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 195.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 23c | 194.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 25c | 183.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Yes | 23c | 178.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 76c | 116$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 75c | 104.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…fcd8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 22c | 96.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 76c | 93.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…c45cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 77c | 68.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…2236backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…aecebacked No | 77c | 64.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f23abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…eefabacked Yes | 25c | 59.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…b7fcbacked No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac4…d675backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…7c39backed No | 77c | 46.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 23c | 46.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 77c | 45.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…1ae8backed No | 77c | 45.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Yes | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…c00abacked No | 79c | 29.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.