Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9186e2712c4c19143b6539e7d1ac78a830a91719eb0b330d00723340a805ca03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 57c | 6,036$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,440.64 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 4,842$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 45c | 4,270$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.85 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 2,875$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.03 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…e9c3backed No | 72c | 1,464$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…3e03backed Yes | 28c | 941$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…ef8abacked Yes | 80c | 873.24$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 750$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 73c | 700$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…c961backed Yes | 28c | 667$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…1e2ebacked Yes | 28c | 654$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 62c | 581$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.57 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…29bbbacked Yes | 28c | 539$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0c…58c5backed Yes | 28c | 523$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…355fbacked No | 72c | 512$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 499$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.51 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 485.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…9d2cbacked Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 58c | 431.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…220cbacked No | 72c | 392$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b81…5af0backed No | 72c | 277$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…e4edbacked No | 72c | 275$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…9d85backed No | 72c | 262$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 73c | 238.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.42 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 27c | 227.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 71c | 223.65$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.79 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2e…bfa2backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 33c | 166.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yes | 80c | 146.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 34c | 143.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9da3backed No | 72c | 142$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 132$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.72 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 71c | 122$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed No | 71c | 103.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 98.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 27c | 86.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 67c | 77.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…39c7backed Yes | 58c | 68.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 72c | 64.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…b7fcbacked No | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Yes | 44c | 54.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…5010backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…96f2backed No | 62c | 48.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…1ae8backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…4a49backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 28c | 39.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…c00abacked No | 73c | 31.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…f8d1backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 22.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 67c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…3678backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 17.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-21?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.