NFL · resolved market
Which conference wins the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343a4dbe5cbaf9f06ab2250b2e1fba6824da8e136a676ef4caaac8189d5fff35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NFCof AFC, NFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked NFC | 49c | 1,998$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed AFC | 51c | 1,974$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.83 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed NFC | 44c | 356.82$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.37 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed AFC | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked AFC | 53c | 181.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…396ebacked AFC | 55c | 181.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2178backed NFC | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked AFC | 52c | 121.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed AFC | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed NFC | 46c | 64.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed AFC | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked AFC | 53c | 26.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed AFC | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…ee35backed AFC | 54c | 19.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.