China Taiwan · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06676baf7fa01b419381015d22cf555c70ce0cf237b8b73706ebdb80b64eae96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 3c | 6,180$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 22c | 1,100$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 10c | 744$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…e4a8backed No | 26c | 417.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 67c | 306.4$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 8c | 255.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 74c | 250.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…58f7backed Yes | 77c | 244$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 75c | 219.7$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…02cfbacked Yes | 77c | 206.95$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 77c | 195$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 14c | 192.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 182.91$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…c97abacked No | 32c | 113.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…ee4cbacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 66c | 90.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9aa…dc7dbacked No | 17c | 88.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…44f2backed No | 57c | 81.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 21c | 66.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…ba4abacked No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 73c | 52.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Yes | 79c | 51.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4b…5ae1backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 78c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44f…cb54backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 79c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…9970backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…30b7backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.