NFL · resolved market
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 3 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed55b47daec0676d9106464392e2ebc17a7c1a9df38d5d12cba6aa7757389e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…fbd2backed Yes | 4c | 2,487$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 941.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 5c | 814.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 2c | 743.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…8911backed Yes | 5c | 392.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Yes | 9c | 208.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 11c | 97.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…6b7ebacked Yes | 25c | 80.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 3 times?this page
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 0 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 1 time?Yes won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 2 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 4 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 5 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 6 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 7 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 8 times?No won
- Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 9 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.