F1 · resolved market
Will McLaren record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4142488d6e648f9aa9f5d7903a8bef151748d4deb21a3ea2e46d21cea43d29d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,155$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 26c | 510.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 12c | 506.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 404.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 69c | 329.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…ef98backed Yes | 29c | 239.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 24c | 237.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 22c | 219.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +837.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…92eabacked Yes | 21c | 213.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…8367backed Yes | 46c | 199.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…8fbebacked Yes | 34c | 191.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 22c | 186.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 26c | 184.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 72c | 168$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…c206backed Yes | 28c | 165.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…14c7backed Yes | 31c | 145.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 15c | 140.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…35d4backed Yes | 18c | 109.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x311a…b58cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…a06fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…8ea3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…d246backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6338…02a1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…571ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…f84fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…d0d0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…7169backed Yes | 25c | 98.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…3f8cbacked Yes | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c02…4c3abacked No | 70c | 90.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 71c | 79.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 73c | 70.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…837abacked Yes | 31c | 65.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…8dd7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e9…b2c3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…6f3fbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd8…88b6backed No | 70c | 49.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…e766backed Yes | 28c | 47.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 24c | 45.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…e219backed No | 74c | 35.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…7dbebacked No | 71c | 32.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…3ae1backed No | 71c | 32.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c03…f7ecbacked No | 73c | 32.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…3bd6backed No | 70c | 32.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…c5dfbacked No | 71c | 30.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…5b63backed No | 71c | 30.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…c028backed No | 73c | 29.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344a…ba39backed No | 70c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c21…88e8backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…485fbacked No | 70c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f3…6073backed No | 70c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…5808backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca9…0cb6backed No | 73c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc79…5580backed No | 73c | 22.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…675bbacked No | 70c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…12acbacked No | 71c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…407fbacked No | 70c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…2fdebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…0a85backed No | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…6a05backed No | 73c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…270abacked No | 70c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…7366backed No | 74c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…d1cbbacked No | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…656bbacked No | 71c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…282ebacked No | 72c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…94febacked No | 76c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…4942backed No | 72c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…550ebacked No | 70c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will McLaren record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?this page
- Will Alpine record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Aston Martin record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Haas record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Kick Sauber record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.