F1 · resolved market
Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x470a226c2dfb3c4db21edf751a852d0ad733b558009c8881d3fcc9f224cd7b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 524.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 18c | 380.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 11c | 319.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…8367backed Yes | 33c | 254.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 24c | 242.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +837.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 22c | 185.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +382.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 184.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 181.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 78c | 172.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 19c | 144.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…ef98backed Yes | 30c | 135.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 23c | 125.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 78c | 110.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…63a5backed Yes | 12c | 109$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 108.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 18c | 108.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…370dbacked Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…a0c9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…b2a2backed Yes | 18c | 99.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…5e5bbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…cf42backed Yes | 22c | 94.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a2…16aabacked Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…042bbacked Yes | 18c | 84.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…837abacked Yes | 26c | 77.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed Yes | 19c | 52.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…8f10backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…7254backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…bf28backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…508abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cac2backed No | 77c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?this page
- Will Alpine record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Aston Martin record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Haas record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Kick Sauber record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will McLaren record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.