F1 · resolved market
Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9c8735cb37012c422dcf55c27aa4753369eeb9dc4789188d4add08ef1b8812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…d16dbacked Yes | 8c | 639.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 9c | 600.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 15c | 384.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 9c | 285$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 9c | 184.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 8c | 183.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…0d36backed Yes | 9c | 171.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…b02cbacked Yes | 7c | 159.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 145.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 119.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3571…d9a8backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?this page
- Will Alpine record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Aston Martin record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Haas record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Kick Sauber record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will McLaren record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.