F1 · resolved market
Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbcfa6832d5ce4b0c1a67792a00c077f9b411480900797aa6c76cc3a63444ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 73c | 9,434$6,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.1 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 27c | 9,000$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +1,196.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 2c | 1,318$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.43 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 3c | 1,293$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +382.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,211$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…fdb6backed Yes | 10c | 1,003$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +491.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked No | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 2c | 942.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.15 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 857.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +837.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 10c | 753.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +194%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 734.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dc…018bbacked Yes | 3c | 714.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,871.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 49c | 669.6$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ed…14f2backed Yes | 3c | 640.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +737.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 5c | 616.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.6 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 588.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 51c | 533.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.54 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…f28fbacked Yes | 3c | 475.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,070%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 37c | 324$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Yes | 16c | 312.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f4…7700backed Yes | 27c | 175$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 37c | 159$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 72c | 146.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…f9a6backed No | 63c | 142.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 69c | 142.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 140.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 56c | 134.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 13c | 110.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…0bfdbacked No | 65c | 109.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…819dbacked Yes | 72c | 104.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…f3cabacked Yes | 72c | 96.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 75c | 84.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…5385backed Yes | 33c | 84.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 53c | 78.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Yes | 38c | 55.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…60a9backed Yes | 72c | 54.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…5d8fbacked Yes | 26c | 48.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 51c | 46.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 61c | 35.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…d099backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…da2ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…81eabacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?this page
- Will Alpine record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Aston Martin record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Haas record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Kick Sauber record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will McLaren record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Mercedes record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Racing Bulls record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
- Will Red Bull Racing record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.