TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa0a…81ea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2025, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+74.4%+$12.8
Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$14.4
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.1
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+117.4%+$16.2
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+66.7%+$12
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-70%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AS Roma vs. Atlhletic Bilbao, who advance in the UEFA Europa League matchup?backed Atlhletic Bilbao · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will Ajax win on 2025-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump jail Elon Musk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.75
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$59.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+78.6%+$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EWC Cs2: G2 vs. Falconsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.