Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump jail Elon Musk?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ef600bc39392af1eb229066041069f5de589834e213285e0351b9dd4b5f960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $534,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $850,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d01…8064backed Yes | 6c | 24,436$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 2c | 7,525$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 4,510$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.66 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,770$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,540$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8997…c11abacked Yes | 5c | 3,281$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,259$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,504$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,392$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…b013backed Yes | 5c | 2,113$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes | 6c | 2,081$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…f9debacked Yes | 6c | 2,043$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,909$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,506$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Yes | 6c | 1,377$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,244$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbf…1b16backed Yes | 2c | 1,234$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…39f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,079$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…6d53backed Yes | 6c | 1,036$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…54d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4557backed Yes | 2c | 902.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 4c | 710.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 694$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes | 5c | 652.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…0a13backed Yes | 5c | 648.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 523.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…805cbacked Yes | 5c | 520.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…960dbacked Yes | 6c | 433.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…81eabacked Yes | 6c | 411.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…4810backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…8749backed Yes | 6c | 350.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 5c | 330.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…ed01backed Yes | 5c | 296.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 5c | 258.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…9800backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked Yes | 7c | 148.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.