Music · resolved market
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00dc8314564346ef58a64b31232daa44ec9749453212e390a48520fe6ff09972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 2,451$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 11c | 1,384$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,240$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 961.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 7c | 797.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 2c | 546$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 16cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…be83backed Yes | 3c | 520$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 3c | 458.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 9c | 302$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…1ad0backed Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.