NFL · resolved market
Will Kirk Cousins get cut/traded by the Falcons?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d80fcce69d96c47adadea67fc646eac846ddbda427c67e7f434e812b7c3184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 18c | 1,901$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.7 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 59c | 684.81$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.39 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 60c | 613.48$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 55c | 591.82$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 79c | 500$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 42c | 242.78$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 40c | 202$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 60c | 202$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 134.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 80c | 131.94$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 62c | 126.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Yes | 42c | 71.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 69c | 48.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 31c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 59c | 24.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…10a2backed Yes | 73c | 22.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 76c | 14.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.