AI · resolved market
Will Waymo surpass Uber SF market share in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e2358969a8e0a3d9d9799580fc747c9d8d3519ae943f7bf638d510440f2234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 73c | 1,000$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…61b5backed Yes | 20c | 979.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 26c | 922.39$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 906.11$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.59 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed No | 77c | 592.39$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 27c | 579.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 27c | 492.89$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked No | 73c | 420$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed No | 76c | 399.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…d5e8backed No | 78c | 320$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 27c | 228.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 72c | 202$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +102%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 28c | 202$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed Yes | 10c | 170$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb271…8bdbbacked Yes | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3f7dbacked Yes | 13c | 137.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…235bbacked No | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 108.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 19c | 94.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked No | 79c | 93.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 50c | 83.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…5ec8backed No | 74c | 76.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 74c | 76.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d8…b660backed Yes | 28c | 73.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked No | 67c | 68.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +140%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…5bc1backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…9e51backed No | 73c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cc03backed Yes | 28c | 49.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…b0d4backed No | 74c | 46.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 46.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…4cc4backed Yes | 27c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…32f3backed Yes | 25c | 40.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 77c | 39.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…06f7backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 67c | 20.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…7e3dbacked No | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.