Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122082a5570405cad3aef91333f4503309cb9072ff09456c4794b2eb78f953c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 14c | 2,019$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 2c | 984.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 750$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…ebedbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 462.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 427.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +1,025.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…a189backed Yes | 35c | 195$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed No | 67c | 106.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 61c | 98.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +203%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 54c | 61.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on January 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 50°F or higher on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on January 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.