Middle East · resolved market
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x128d8360cd32742310771cd1856023098ab4cbe1fb559ca52b4233252200c518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae4…6974backed Yes | 5c | 19,908$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes | 5c | 8,327$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 3,911$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,156$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,666$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,659$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,275$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 8c | 1,071$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 917.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 8c | 809.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…dac6backed Yes | 5c | 656.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 5c | 618.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 560$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 6c | 475$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Yes | 9c | 376.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…b456backed Yes | 8c | 212.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…8064backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 187.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.